Win probabilities for the upcoming Grand Prix — select a driver tab for tyre wear, circuit strategy history, and full prediction breakdown.
Next Grand Prix · Round 6
Circuit de Monaco · Monaco
Sunday, 7 June 2026 at 13:00 UTC
Monaco Grand Prix · Round 6
Why this %? Front-running finisher: Wins 80% of races entered
In-depth analysis
Driver performance
Andrea Kimi Antonelli holds P1 in the championship on 131 points with 4 wins from 5 rounds. Season averages: P1.2 finish, 5 podiums, 118 points scored, with strong reliability. At Canadian Grand Prix: qualified P2, finished P1 from P2 on the grid.
Racing style
Wins 80% of races entered — a calculated front-runner who converts strong car performance into victories when opportunities arise.
Car performance
Mercedes sits P1 in the constructors' championship with 219 points and 5 race wins. Both drivers average P2.0 — the car is genuinely front-running machinery. Combined 7 podiums this season confirms the car can deliver on representative circuits.
Upgrades & development
No public upgrade package reported for Mercedes ahead of the next round — probability assumes current spec continuity unless the paddock signals otherwise.
131 championship pts — among the form drivers
Has won 4 of 5 races this season (80% win rate)
Won the previous Grand Prix — carrying momentum into the next round
Mercedes is P1 in constructors' with 5 wins — car performance is a key factor
Averaging P1.2 across 5 starts with 5 podiums
Mercedes sits P1 in the constructors' championship with 219 points and 5 race wins. Both drivers average P2.0 — the car is genuinely front-running machinery. Combined 7 podiums this season confirms the car can deliver on representative circuits.
No public upgrade package reported for Mercedes ahead of the next round — probability assumes current spec continuity unless the paddock signals otherwise.
Wins 80% of races entered — a calculated front-runner who converts strong car performance into victories when opportunities arise.
| Pos | Driver | Team | Pts | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 131 | 4 |
| 2 | George Russell | Mercedes | 88 | 1 |
| 3 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 75 | 0 |
| 4 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 72 | 0 |
| 5 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 58 | 0 |
| 6 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 48 | 0 |
| 7 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 43 | 0 |
| 8 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine F1 Team | 20 | 0 |
| 9 | Oliver Bearman | Haas F1 Team | 18 | 0 |
| 10 | Liam Lawson | RB F1 Team | 16 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | Pts | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercedes | 219 | 5 |
| 2 | Ferrari | 147 | 0 |
| 3 | McLaren | 106 | 0 |
| 4 | Red Bull | 57 | 0 |
| 5 | Alpine F1 Team | 35 | 0 |
| 6 | RB F1 Team | 21 | 0 |
| 7 | Haas F1 Team | 19 | 0 |
| 8 | Williams | 7 | 0 |
| 9 | Audi | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Cadillac F1 Team | 0 | 0 |
Monaco Grand Prix · Round 6
Why this %? Front-running finisher: Wins 100% of races entered
In-depth analysis
Driver performance
Andrea Kimi Antonelli holds P1 in the championship on 131 points with 4 wins from 5 rounds. Season averages: P1 finish, 3 podiums, 75 points scored, with strong reliability. At Canadian Grand Prix: finished P1 from P2 on the grid.
Racing style
Wins 100% of races entered — a calculated front-runner who converts strong car performance into victories when opportunities arise.
Car performance
Mercedes car performance data is limited — projections rely mainly on driver-level results.
Upgrades & development
No public upgrade package reported for Mercedes ahead of the next round — probability assumes current spec continuity unless the paddock signals otherwise.
Mercedes car performance data is limited — projections rely mainly on driver-level results.
No public upgrade package reported for Mercedes ahead of the next round — probability assumes current spec continuity unless the paddock signals otherwise.
Wins 100% of races entered — a calculated front-runner who converts strong car performance into victories when opportunities arise.
